England vs DR Congo

World Cup 2026 · Round of 32 · Jul 1, 10:00 CDMX FT 2–1

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

England

Model probability 83.1%

Market no-vig 74.1%

Calibrated probability 78.6%

Draw

Model probability 14.0%

Market no-vig 18.6%

Calibrated probability 16.3%

DR Congo

Model probability 2.9%

Market no-vig 7.3%

Calibrated probability 5.1%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 18.4%

1-0 15.2%

3-0 14.4%

0-0 8.8%

4-0 8.5%

1-1 6.4%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.8% Over 0.5 91.2%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 26.9% Over 1.5 73.1%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 52.3% Over 2.5 47.7%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.6% Over 3.5 26.4%

BTTS yes 24.8%

BTTS no 75.2%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 71.7%

Away clean sheet 12.3%

Home win to nil 62.9%

Away win to nil 3.5%

Home over 0.5 87.7%

Away over 0.5 28.3%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 78.6%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 21.4%

Home 0.0

Home cover 78.6%

Push 16.3%

Away cover 5.1%

Home 0.5

Home cover 94.9%