calibrated · ensemble · what-if
Soccer-q samples a calibrated ensemble of plausible match futures — score-lines, tactical modes, and a statistically meaningful model probability layer. Not a single forecast. The full spread of what could happen, scored against the market.
Everything is free and open during the World Cup. We'll email you each day's fixtures and their scenarios.
How it works
A structured Boltzmann prior draws K diverse, plausible futures per fixture — distinct tactical modes, not noise around one guess.
Each ensemble is scored by Brier against closing-line probabilities, so the numbers you see are honest, not hopeful.
The diverse scenarios and their calibrated probabilities — plus counterfactual what-ifs for members.
Runs on a classical quantum-inspired sampler — no special hardware. Soccer-q is scenario analytics — a calibrated view of uncertainty, not advice.