calibrated · ensemble · what-if
Soccer-q samples a calibrated ensemble of plausible match futures — score-lines, tactical modes, and a statistically meaningful model probability layer. Not a single forecast. The full spread of what could happen, scored against the market.
Everything is free and open during the World Cup. We'll email you each day's fixtures and their scenarios.
The title race
Live prices from the Polymarket prediction market, read as each team's chance of lifting the trophy. An external signal — not our model.
What the prediction-market crowd is pricing right now, via Polymarket — shown beside our ensemble, never instead of it.
External market signal — not Soccer-q model output. View on Polymarket → · updated 19:20 CDMX · refresh pending
Next up
Each team's chance of winning (and the draw) implied by bookmaker prices, with the margin removed so they sum to 100%.
The market-implied chances (no-vig) for each fixture — open one to see the scenario ensemble behind it.
No-vig market line · median of 52 books · external signal
See the scenarios →How it works
A structured Boltzmann prior draws K diverse, plausible futures per fixture — distinct tactical modes, not noise around one guess.
Each ensemble is scored by Brier against closing-line probabilities, so the numbers you see are honest, not hopeful.
The diverse scenarios and their calibrated probabilities — plus counterfactual what-ifs for members.
Runs on a classical quantum-inspired sampler — no special hardware. Soccer-q is scenario analytics — a calibrated view of uncertainty, not advice.