Mexico vs South Korea

World Cup 2026 · Group A · Jun 18, 19:00 CDMX FT 1–0

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Mexico

Model probability 41.3%

Market no-vig 46.4%

Calibrated probability 43.9%

Draw

Model probability 28.7%

Market no-vig 29.8%

Calibrated probability 29.2%

South Korea

Model probability 30.1%

Market no-vig 23.8%

Calibrated probability 26.9%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

1-1 14.0%

1-0 9.9%

2-1 9.4%

0-0 8.8%

2-0 8.0%

0-1 6.7%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.8% Over 0.5 91.2%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.5% Over 1.5 74.5%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 52.0% Over 2.5 48.0%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.6% Over 3.5 26.4%

BTTS yes 53.8%

BTTS no 46.2%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 32.3%

Away clean sheet 22.7%

Home win to nil 23.4%

Away win to nil 13.9%

Home over 0.5 77.3%

Away over 0.5 67.7%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 43.9%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 56.1%

Home 0.0

Home cover 43.9%

Push 29.2%

Away cover 26.9%

Home 0.5

Home cover 73.1%