Brazil vs Haiti

World Cup 2026 · Group C · Jun 19, 19:00 CDMX FT 3–0

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Brazil

Model probability 83.1%

Market no-vig 85.1%

Calibrated probability 84.1%

Draw

Model probability 14.0%

Market no-vig 10.4%

Calibrated probability 12.2%

Haiti

Model probability 2.9%

Market no-vig 4.4%

Calibrated probability 3.7%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 19.7%

1-0 16.3%

3-0 15.5%

4-0 9.1%

0-0 6.6%

2-1 5.9%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 6.6% Over 0.5 93.4%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.0% Over 1.5 75.0%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 49.9% Over 2.5 50.1%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 72.3% Over 3.5 27.7%

BTTS yes 23.6%

BTTS no 76.4%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 73.9%

Away clean sheet 9.1%

Home win to nil 67.3%

Away win to nil 2.5%

Home over 0.5 90.9%

Away over 0.5 26.1%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 84.1%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 15.9%

Home 0.0

Home cover 84.1%

Push 12.2%

Away cover 3.7%

Home 0.5

Home cover 96.3%