Germany vs Ivory Coast

World Cup 2026 · Group E · Jun 20, 14:00 CDMX FT 2–1

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Germany

Model probability 64.9%

Market no-vig 66.0%

Calibrated probability 65.5%

Draw

Model probability 23.1%

Market no-vig 20.0%

Calibrated probability 21.5%

Ivory Coast

Model probability 12.0%

Market no-vig 14.0%

Calibrated probability 13.0%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 13.5%

1-0 13.2%

1-1 10.1%

2-1 9.5%

3-0 8.6%

0-0 7.8%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 7.8% Over 0.5 92.2%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.6% Over 1.5 74.4%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 51.3% Over 2.5 48.7%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.5% Over 3.5 26.5%

BTTS yes 43.5%

BTTS no 56.5%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 49.4%

Away clean sheet 14.9%

Home win to nil 41.6%

Away win to nil 7.1%

Home over 0.5 85.1%

Away over 0.5 50.6%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 65.5%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 34.5%

Home 0.0

Home cover 65.5%

Push 21.5%

Away cover 13.0%

Home 0.5

Home cover 87.0%