England vs Ghana

World Cup 2026 · Group L · Jun 23, 14:00 CDMX FT 0–0

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

England

Model probability 83.1%

Market no-vig 81.4%

Calibrated probability 82.3%

Draw

Model probability 14.0%

Market no-vig 12.8%

Calibrated probability 13.4%

Ghana

Model probability 2.9%

Market no-vig 5.8%

Calibrated probability 4.3%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 19.3%

1-0 15.9%

3-0 15.1%

4-0 8.9%

0-0 7.2%

2-1 5.8%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 7.2% Over 0.5 92.8%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.6% Over 1.5 74.4%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 50.6% Over 2.5 49.4%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 72.7% Over 3.5 27.3%

BTTS yes 24.0%

BTTS no 76.0%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 73.1%

Away clean sheet 10.2%

Home win to nil 65.8%

Away win to nil 2.9%

Home over 0.5 89.8%

Away over 0.5 26.9%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 82.3%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 17.7%

Home 0.0

Home cover 82.3%

Push 13.4%

Away cover 4.3%

Home 0.5

Home cover 95.7%