Panama vs Croatia

World Cup 2026 · Group L · Jun 23, 17:00 CDMX FT 0–1

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Panama

Model probability 6.6%

Market no-vig 11.9%

Calibrated probability 9.2%

Draw

Model probability 18.9%

Market no-vig 20.8%

Calibrated probability 19.8%

Croatia

Model probability 74.6%

Market no-vig 67.3%

Calibrated probability 70.9%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

0-2 15.7%

0-1 14.2%

0-3 11.1%

1-1 8.9%

0-0 8.6%

1-2 7.7%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.6% Over 0.5 91.4%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 26.8% Over 1.5 73.2%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 52.7% Over 2.5 47.3%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 74.3% Over 3.5 25.7%

BTTS yes 35.4%

BTTS no 64.6%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 14.1%

Away clean sheet 59.1%

Home win to nil 5.5%

Away win to nil 50.5%

Home over 0.5 40.9%

Away over 0.5 85.9%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 9.2%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 90.8%

Home 0.0

Home cover 9.2%

Push 19.8%

Away cover 70.9%

Home 0.5

Home cover 29.1%