Portugal vs Spain

World Cup 2026 · Round of 16 · Jul 6, 13:00 CDMX FT 0–1

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Portugal

Model probability 20.1%

Market no-vig 24.3%

Calibrated probability 22.2%

Draw

Model probability 26.7%

Market no-vig 27.1%

Calibrated probability 26.9%

Spain

Model probability 53.1%

Market no-vig 48.7%

Calibrated probability 50.9%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

1-1 12.8%

0-1 10.7%

0-2 9.8%

1-2 9.2%

0-0 8.6%

1-0 6.4%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.6% Over 0.5 91.4%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.8% Over 1.5 74.2%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 52.0% Over 2.5 48.0%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.8% Over 3.5 26.2%

BTTS yes 50.7%

BTTS no 49.3%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 20.1%

Away clean sheet 37.8%

Home win to nil 11.5%

Away win to nil 29.2%

Home over 0.5 62.2%

Away over 0.5 79.9%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 22.2%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 77.8%

Home 0.0

Home cover 22.2%

Push 26.9%

Away cover 50.9%

Home 0.5

Home cover 49.1%