Odds API match markets
Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.
No Odds API match was found for these teams.
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador
World Cup 2026 · Group E · Jun 14, 17:00 CDMX FT 1–0
1X2 probability
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.
Ivory Coast
Model probability
33.7%
Market no-vig
29.0%
Calibrated probability
31.3%
Draw
Model probability
28.9%
Market no-vig
32.5%
Calibrated probability
30.7%
Ecuador
Model probability
37.4%
Market no-vig
38.5%
Calibrated probability
38.0%
Market signals
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.
Polymarket match markets
Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.
No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.
World Cup winner
This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.
No Polymarket signal is available right now.
Most likely scorelines
1-1
14.7%
0-0
9.2%
0-1
8.8%
1-2
8.5%
1-0
7.5%
2-1
7.3%
Goal markets
Total 0.5
Under 0.5 9.2%
Over 0.5 90.8%
Total 1.5
Under 1.5 25.6%
Over 1.5 74.4%
Total 2.5
Under 2.5 52.5%
Over 2.5 47.5%
Total 3.5
Under 3.5 73.7%
Over 3.5 26.3%
BTTS yes
54.5%
BTTS no
45.5%
Team markets
Home clean sheet
25.5%
Away clean sheet
29.2%
Home win to nil
16.3%
Away win to nil
20.0%
Home over 0.5
70.8%
Away over 0.5
74.5%
Handicap snapshot
Home -0.5
Home cover
31.3%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
68.7%
Home 0.0
Home cover
31.3%
Push
30.7%
Away cover
38.0%
Home 0.5
Home cover
62.0%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
38.0%
counter
Market-blended
0–2
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
6.7%
Model probability
37.4%
Market no-vig
38.5%
Calibrated probability
38.0%
Explanation weight
48.6%
press
Market-blended
0–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
8.7%
Model probability
37.4%
Market no-vig
38.5%
Calibrated probability
38.0%
Explanation weight
19.8%
possession
Market-blended
0–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
8.7%
Model probability
28.9%
Market no-vig
32.5%
Calibrated probability
30.7%
Explanation weight
18.0%
high-line
Market-blended
2–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
7.9%
Model probability
33.7%
Market no-vig
29.0%
Calibrated probability
31.3%
Explanation weight
10.8%
counter
Market-blended
0–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
8.7%
Model probability
37.4%
Market no-vig
38.5%
Calibrated probability
38.0%
Explanation weight
2.9%
What-if · shift home expected goals
Drag the slider to explore a counterfactual ensemble.