United States vs Australia

World Cup 2026 · Group D · Jun 19, 13:00 CDMX FT 2–0

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

United States

Model probability 52.6%

Market no-vig 58.8%

Calibrated probability 55.7%

Draw

Model probability 26.8%

Market no-vig 23.3%

Calibrated probability 25.1%

Australia

Model probability 20.5%

Market no-vig 17.9%

Calibrated probability 19.2%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

1-1 12.0%

1-0 11.7%

2-0 10.7%

2-1 10.2%

0-0 8.0%

3-0 5.9%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.0% Over 0.5 92.0%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.3% Over 1.5 74.7%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 51.1% Over 2.5 48.9%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.3% Over 3.5 26.7%

BTTS yes 50.2%

BTTS no 49.8%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 39.9%

Away clean sheet 18.0%

Home win to nil 31.8%

Away win to nil 9.9%

Home over 0.5 82.0%

Away over 0.5 60.1%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 55.7%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 44.3%

Home 0.0

Home cover 55.7%

Push 25.1%

Away cover 19.2%

Home 0.5

Home cover 80.8%