Odds API match markets
Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.
No Odds API match was found for these teams.
Haiti vs Scotland
World Cup 2026 · Group C · Jun 13, 19:00 CDMX FT 0–1
1X2 probability
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.
Haiti
Model probability
7.5%
Market no-vig
16.9%
Calibrated probability
12.2%
Draw
Model probability
19.7%
Market no-vig
21.7%
Calibrated probability
20.7%
Scotland
Model probability
72.8%
Market no-vig
61.4%
Calibrated probability
67.1%
Market signals
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.
Polymarket match markets
Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.
No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.
World Cup winner
This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.
No Polymarket signal is available right now.
Most likely scorelines
0-2
14.7%
0-1
13.4%
0-3
10.1%
1-1
9.4%
0-0
8.7%
1-2
7.8%
Goal markets
Total 0.5
Under 0.5 8.7%
Over 0.5 91.3%
Total 1.5
Under 1.5 27.2%
Over 1.5 72.8%
Total 2.5
Under 2.5 52.9%
Over 2.5 47.1%
Total 3.5
Under 3.5 74.7%
Over 3.5 25.3%
BTTS yes
37.6%
BTTS no
62.4%
Team markets
Home clean sheet
15.8%
Away clean sheet
55.3%
Home win to nil
7.1%
Away win to nil
46.6%
Home over 0.5
44.7%
Away over 0.5
84.2%
Handicap snapshot
Home -0.5
Home cover
12.2%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
87.8%
Home 0.0
Home cover
12.2%
Push
20.7%
Away cover
67.1%
Home 0.5
Home cover
32.9%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
67.1%
press
Market-blended
3–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
0.2%
Model probability
7.5%
Market no-vig
16.9%
Calibrated probability
12.2%
Explanation weight
40.1%
counter
Market-blended
2–2
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
2.2%
Model probability
19.7%
Market no-vig
21.7%
Calibrated probability
20.7%
Explanation weight
24.6%
possession
Market-blended
2–2
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
2.2%
Model probability
19.7%
Market no-vig
21.7%
Calibrated probability
20.7%
Explanation weight
22.3%
high-line
Market-blended
6–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
0.0%
Model probability
7.5%
Market no-vig
16.9%
Calibrated probability
12.2%
Explanation weight
12.8%
park-bus
Market-blended
0–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
8.2%
Model probability
19.7%
Market no-vig
21.7%
Calibrated probability
20.7%
Explanation weight
0.2%
What-if · shift home expected goals
Drag the slider to explore a counterfactual ensemble.