South Africa vs South Korea

World Cup 2026 · Group A · Jun 24, 19:00 CDMX FT 1–0

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

South Africa

Model probability 18.6%

Market no-vig 17.2%

Calibrated probability 17.9%

Draw

Model probability 26.2%

Market no-vig 25.5%

Calibrated probability 25.9%

South Korea

Model probability 55.1%

Market no-vig 57.3%

Calibrated probability 56.2%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

1-1 12.3%

0-1 11.7%

0-2 10.9%

1-2 9.8%

0-0 8.5%

0-3 6.2%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.5% Over 0.5 91.5%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.5% Over 1.5 74.5%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 51.7% Over 2.5 48.3%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.5% Over 3.5 26.5%

BTTS yes 49.5%

BTTS no 50.5%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 17.8%

Away clean sheet 41.2%

Home win to nil 9.3%

Away win to nil 32.7%

Home over 0.5 58.8%

Away over 0.5 82.2%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 17.9%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 82.1%

Home 0.0

Home cover 17.9%

Push 25.9%

Away cover 56.2%

Home 0.5

Home cover 43.8%