Argentina vs Egypt

World Cup 2026 · Round of 16 · Jul 7, 10:00 CDMX FT 3–2

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Argentina

Model probability 83.1%

Market no-vig 71.4%

Calibrated probability 77.3%

Draw

Model probability 14.0%

Market no-vig 20.0%

Calibrated probability 17.0%

Egypt

Model probability 2.9%

Market no-vig 8.6%

Calibrated probability 5.8%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

#1 Argentina 0.1%

View on Polymarket → updated 19:20 CDMX

Most likely scorelines

2-0 18.1%

1-0 15.0%

3-0 14.2%

0-0 9.2%

4-0 8.3%

1-1 6.6%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 9.2% Over 0.5 90.8%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 27.4% Over 1.5 72.6%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 52.8% Over 2.5 47.2%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 74.0% Over 3.5 26.0%

BTTS yes 25.1%

BTTS no 74.9%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 71.0%

Away clean sheet 13.1%

Home win to nil 61.8%

Away win to nil 3.9%

Home over 0.5 86.9%

Away over 0.5 29.0%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 77.3%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 22.7%

Home 0.0

Home cover 77.3%

Push 17.0%

Away cover 5.8%

Home 0.5

Home cover 94.2%