Portugal vs Croatia

World Cup 2026 · Round of 32 · Jul 2, 17:00 CDMX FT 2–1

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Portugal

Model probability 50.2%

Market no-vig 56.4%

Calibrated probability 53.3%

Draw

Model probability 27.4%

Market no-vig 26.1%

Calibrated probability 26.7%

Croatia

Model probability 22.5%

Market no-vig 17.5%

Calibrated probability 20.0%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

1-1 12.8%

1-0 11.4%

2-1 10.1%

2-0 10.1%

0-0 8.4%

0-1 5.5%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.4% Over 0.5 91.6%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.3% Over 1.5 74.7%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 51.5% Over 2.5 48.5%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.4% Over 3.5 26.6%

BTTS yes 51.4%

BTTS no 48.6%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 38.3%

Away clean sheet 18.7%

Home win to nil 29.9%

Away win to nil 10.3%

Home over 0.5 81.3%

Away over 0.5 61.7%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 53.3%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 46.7%

Home 0.0

Home cover 53.3%

Push 26.7%

Away cover 20.0%

Home 0.5

Home cover 80.0%