Odds API match markets
Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.
No Odds API match was found for these teams.
Canada vs Morocco
World Cup 2026 · Round of 16 · Jul 4, 11:00 CDMX FT 0–3
1X2 probability
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.
Canada
Model probability
16.2%
Market no-vig
18.2%
Calibrated probability
17.2%
Draw
Model probability
25.2%
Market no-vig
29.0%
Calibrated probability
27.1%
Morocco
Model probability
58.6%
Market no-vig
52.8%
Calibrated probability
55.7%
Market signals
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.
Polymarket match markets
Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.
No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.
World Cup winner
This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.
No Polymarket signal is available right now.
Most likely scorelines
1-1
12.9%
0-1
11.5%
0-2
11.1%
1-2
9.2%
0-0
9.2%
0-3
6.5%
Goal markets
Total 0.5
Under 0.5 9.2%
Over 0.5 90.8%
Total 1.5
Under 1.5 26.0%
Over 1.5 74.0%
Total 2.5
Under 2.5 52.7%
Over 2.5 47.3%
Total 3.5
Under 3.5 73.9%
Over 3.5 26.1%
BTTS yes
48.4%
BTTS no
51.6%
Team markets
Home clean sheet
18.2%
Away clean sheet
42.5%
Home win to nil
9.1%
Away win to nil
33.4%
Home over 0.5
57.5%
Away over 0.5
81.8%
Handicap snapshot
Home -0.5
Home cover
17.2%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
82.8%
Home 0.0
Home cover
17.2%
Push
27.1%
Away cover
55.7%
Home 0.5
Home cover
44.3%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
55.7%
counter
Market-blended
0–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
12.1%
Model probability
58.6%
Market no-vig
52.8%
Calibrated probability
55.7%
Explanation weight
50.2%
counter
Market-blended
0–3
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
6.9%
Model probability
58.6%
Market no-vig
52.8%
Calibrated probability
55.7%
Explanation weight
20.4%
high-line
Market-blended
1–5
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
0.9%
Model probability
58.6%
Market no-vig
52.8%
Calibrated probability
55.7%
Explanation weight
16.2%
press
Market-blended
1–2
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
9.7%
Model probability
58.6%
Market no-vig
52.8%
Calibrated probability
55.7%
Explanation weight
7.8%
possession
Market-blended
0–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
12.1%
Model probability
58.6%
Market no-vig
52.8%
Calibrated probability
55.7%
Explanation weight
5.3%
What-if · shift home expected goals
Drag the slider to explore a counterfactual ensemble.