Odds API match markets
Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.
No Odds API match was found for these teams.
France vs Sweden
World Cup 2026 · Round of 32 · Jun 30, 15:00 CDMX FT 3–0
1X2 probability
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.
France
Model probability
83.1%
Market no-vig
74.4%
Calibrated probability
78.7%
Draw
Model probability
14.0%
Market no-vig
16.1%
Calibrated probability
15.1%
Sweden
Model probability
2.9%
Market no-vig
9.5%
Calibrated probability
6.2%
Market signals
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.
Polymarket match markets
Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.
No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.
World Cup winner
This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.
No Polymarket signal is available right now.
Most likely scorelines
2-0
18.5%
1-0
15.3%
3-0
14.5%
4-0
8.5%
0-0
8.1%
1-1
5.9%
Goal markets
Total 0.5
Under 0.5 8.1%
Over 0.5 91.9%
Total 1.5
Under 1.5 26.9%
Over 1.5 73.1%
Total 2.5
Under 2.5 51.9%
Over 2.5 48.1%
Total 3.5
Under 3.5 73.6%
Over 3.5 26.4%
BTTS yes
24.6%
BTTS no
75.4%
Team markets
Home clean sheet
71.2%
Away clean sheet
12.4%
Home win to nil
63.0%
Away win to nil
4.2%
Home over 0.5
87.6%
Away over 0.5
28.8%
Handicap snapshot
Home -0.5
Home cover
78.7%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
21.3%
Home 0.0
Home cover
78.7%
Push
15.1%
Away cover
6.2%
Home 0.5
Home cover
93.8%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
6.2%
press
Market-blended
0–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
7.6%
Model probability
14.0%
Market no-vig
16.1%
Calibrated probability
15.1%
Explanation weight
36.4%
possession
Market-blended
6–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
1.7%
Model probability
83.1%
Market no-vig
74.4%
Calibrated probability
78.7%
Explanation weight
27.6%
high-line
Market-blended
6–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
0.5%
Model probability
83.1%
Market no-vig
74.4%
Calibrated probability
78.7%
Explanation weight
27.0%
counter
Market-blended
5–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
4.2%
Model probability
83.1%
Market no-vig
74.4%
Calibrated probability
78.7%
Explanation weight
8.1%
park-bus
Market-blended
1–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
16.1%
Model probability
83.1%
Market no-vig
74.4%
Calibrated probability
78.7%
Explanation weight
0.9%
What-if · shift home expected goals
Drag the slider to explore a counterfactual ensemble.