Japan vs Sweden

World Cup 2026 · Group F · Jun 25, 17:00 CDMX FT 1–1

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Japan

Model probability 50.2%

Market no-vig 42.2%

Calibrated probability 46.2%

Draw

Model probability 27.4%

Market no-vig 28.1%

Calibrated probability 27.7%

Sweden

Model probability 22.5%

Market no-vig 29.7%

Calibrated probability 26.1%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

1-1 13.2%

1-0 9.8%

2-1 8.8%

2-0 8.8%

0-0 8.7%

0-1 7.2%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.7% Over 0.5 91.3%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.8% Over 1.5 74.2%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 52.1% Over 2.5 47.9%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.9% Over 3.5 26.1%

BTTS yes 51.9%

BTTS no 48.1%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 34.7%

Away clean sheet 22.2%

Home win to nil 25.9%

Away win to nil 13.4%

Home over 0.5 77.8%

Away over 0.5 65.3%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 46.2%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 53.8%

Home 0.0

Home cover 46.2%

Push 27.7%

Away cover 26.1%

Home 0.5

Home cover 73.9%