Uruguay vs Cape Verde

World Cup 2026 · Group H · Jun 21, 16:00 CDMX FT 2–2

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Uruguay

Model probability 83.1%

Market no-vig 69.2%

Calibrated probability 76.2%

Draw

Model probability 14.0%

Market no-vig 21.0%

Calibrated probability 17.5%

Cape Verde

Model probability 2.9%

Market no-vig 9.8%

Calibrated probability 6.4%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 17.9%

1-0 14.8%

3-0 14.0%

0-0 9.4%

4-0 8.2%

1-1 6.8%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 9.4% Over 0.5 90.6%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 27.8% Over 1.5 72.2%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 53.2% Over 2.5 46.8%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 74.3% Over 3.5 25.7%

BTTS yes 25.3%

BTTS no 74.7%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 70.4%

Away clean sheet 13.8%

Home win to nil 61.0%

Away win to nil 4.3%

Home over 0.5 86.2%

Away over 0.5 29.6%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 76.2%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 23.8%

Home 0.0

Home cover 76.2%

Push 17.5%

Away cover 6.4%

Home 0.5

Home cover 93.6%