Odds API match markets
Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.
No Odds API match was found for these teams.
Sweden vs Tunisia
World Cup 2026 · Group F · Jun 14, 20:00 CDMX FT 5–1
1X2 probability
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.
Sweden
Model probability
51.2%
Market no-vig
52.0%
Calibrated probability
51.6%
Draw
Model probability
27.2%
Market no-vig
27.6%
Calibrated probability
27.4%
Tunisia
Model probability
21.7%
Market no-vig
20.4%
Calibrated probability
21.0%
Market signals
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.
Polymarket match markets
Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.
No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.
World Cup winner
This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.
No Polymarket signal is available right now.
Most likely scorelines
1-1
13.1%
1-0
10.9%
2-0
9.8%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.7%
0-1
5.9%
Goal markets
Total 0.5
Under 0.5 8.7%
Over 0.5 91.3%
Total 1.5
Under 1.5 25.5%
Over 1.5 74.5%
Total 2.5
Under 2.5 51.9%
Over 2.5 48.1%
Total 3.5
Under 3.5 73.6%
Over 3.5 26.4%
BTTS yes
51.3%
BTTS no
48.7%
Team markets
Home clean sheet
37.8%
Away clean sheet
19.5%
Home win to nil
29.2%
Away win to nil
10.9%
Home over 0.5
80.5%
Away over 0.5
62.2%
Handicap snapshot
Home -0.5
Home cover
51.6%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
48.4%
Home 0.0
Home cover
51.6%
Push
27.4%
Away cover
21.0%
Home 0.5
Home cover
79.0%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
21.0%
press
Market-blended
3–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
5.3%
Model probability
51.2%
Market no-vig
52.0%
Calibrated probability
51.6%
Explanation weight
40.5%
possession
Market-blended
2–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
9.6%
Model probability
51.2%
Market no-vig
52.0%
Calibrated probability
51.6%
Explanation weight
26.0%
high-line
Market-blended
2–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
9.7%
Model probability
51.2%
Market no-vig
52.0%
Calibrated probability
51.6%
Explanation weight
20.5%
counter
Market-blended
2–3
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
1.5%
Model probability
21.7%
Market no-vig
20.4%
Calibrated probability
21.0%
Explanation weight
12.7%
park-bus
Market-blended
3–2
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
2.5%
Model probability
51.2%
Market no-vig
52.0%
Calibrated probability
51.6%
Explanation weight
0.3%
What-if · shift home expected goals
Drag the slider to explore a counterfactual ensemble.