Colombia vs DR Congo

World Cup 2026 · Group K · Jun 23, 20:00 CDMX FT 1–0

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Colombia

Model probability 75.9%

Market no-vig 62.3%

Calibrated probability 69.1%

Draw

Model probability 18.2%

Market no-vig 24.1%

Calibrated probability 21.2%

DR Congo

Model probability 5.9%

Market no-vig 13.7%

Calibrated probability 9.8%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 15.5%

1-0 13.8%

3-0 11.0%

0-0 9.5%

1-1 9.3%

2-1 7.1%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 9.5% Over 0.5 90.5%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 27.7% Over 1.5 72.3%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 53.8% Over 2.5 46.2%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 75.0% Over 3.5 25.0%

BTTS yes 34.5%

BTTS no 65.5%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 59.5%

Away clean sheet 15.4%

Home win to nil 50.0%

Away win to nil 6.0%

Home over 0.5 84.6%

Away over 0.5 40.5%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 69.1%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 30.9%

Home 0.0

Home cover 69.1%

Push 21.2%

Away cover 9.8%

Home 0.5

Home cover 90.2%