Tunisia vs Japan

World Cup 2026 · Group F · Jun 19, 22:00 CDMX FT 0–4

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Tunisia

Model probability 16.2%

Market no-vig 15.0%

Calibrated probability 15.6%

Draw

Model probability 25.2%

Market no-vig 23.9%

Calibrated probability 24.6%

Japan

Model probability 58.6%

Market no-vig 61.1%

Calibrated probability 59.8%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

0-1 12.3%

0-2 11.9%

1-1 11.7%

1-2 9.9%

0-0 8.3%

0-3 7.0%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.3% Over 0.5 91.7%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.5% Over 1.5 74.5%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 51.5% Over 2.5 48.5%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.5% Over 3.5 26.5%

BTTS yes 47.7%

BTTS no 52.3%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 16.5%

Away clean sheet 44.1%

Home win to nil 8.2%

Away win to nil 35.8%

Home over 0.5 55.9%

Away over 0.5 83.5%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 15.6%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 84.4%

Home 0.0

Home cover 15.6%

Push 24.6%

Away cover 59.8%

Home 0.5

Home cover 40.2%