Colombia vs Portugal

World Cup 2026 · Group K · Jun 27, 17:30 CDMX FT 0–0

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Colombia

Model probability 24.9%

Market no-vig 24.1%

Calibrated probability 24.5%

Draw

Model probability 27.9%

Market no-vig 24.3%

Calibrated probability 26.1%

Portugal

Model probability 47.2%

Market no-vig 51.6%

Calibrated probability 49.4%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

1-1 12.5%

0-1 10.7%

1-2 9.8%

0-2 9.2%

0-0 8.1%

1-0 6.6%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.1% Over 0.5 91.9%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.3% Over 1.5 74.7%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 51.1% Over 2.5 48.9%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.4% Over 3.5 26.6%

BTTS yes 52.1%

BTTS no 47.9%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 20.7%

Away clean sheet 35.3%

Home win to nil 12.6%

Away win to nil 27.2%

Home over 0.5 64.7%

Away over 0.5 79.3%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 24.5%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 75.5%

Home 0.0

Home cover 24.5%

Push 26.1%

Away cover 49.4%

Home 0.5

Home cover 50.6%