Odds API match markets
Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.
No Odds API match was found for these teams.
South Africa vs Canada
World Cup 2026 · Round of 32 · Jun 28, 13:00 CDMX FT 0–1
1X2 probability
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.
South Africa
Model probability
23.7%
Market no-vig
19.6%
Calibrated probability
21.7%
Draw
Model probability
27.7%
Market no-vig
28.4%
Calibrated probability
28.0%
Canada
Model probability
48.7%
Market no-vig
51.9%
Calibrated probability
50.3%
Market signals
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.
Polymarket match markets
Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.
No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.
World Cup winner
This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.
No Polymarket signal is available right now.
Most likely scorelines
1-1
13.4%
0-1
10.8%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
9.5%
0-0
8.7%
1-0
5.9%
Goal markets
Total 0.5
Under 0.5 8.7%
Over 0.5 91.3%
Total 1.5
Under 1.5 25.5%
Over 1.5 74.5%
Total 2.5
Under 2.5 51.9%
Over 2.5 48.1%
Total 3.5
Under 3.5 73.5%
Over 3.5 26.5%
BTTS yes
52.1%
BTTS no
47.9%
Team markets
Home clean sheet
19.9%
Away clean sheet
36.7%
Home win to nil
11.1%
Away win to nil
28.0%
Home over 0.5
63.3%
Away over 0.5
80.1%
Handicap snapshot
Home -0.5
Home cover
21.7%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
78.3%
Home 0.0
Home cover
21.7%
Push
28.0%
Away cover
50.3%
Home 0.5
Home cover
49.7%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
50.3%
counter
Market-blended
0–2
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
9.2%
Model probability
48.7%
Market no-vig
51.9%
Calibrated probability
50.3%
Explanation weight
53.7%
high-line
Market-blended
1–4
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
1.9%
Model probability
48.7%
Market no-vig
51.9%
Calibrated probability
50.3%
Explanation weight
15.8%
counter
Market-blended
0–2
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
9.2%
Model probability
48.7%
Market no-vig
51.9%
Calibrated probability
50.3%
Explanation weight
11.6%
possession
Market-blended
0–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
10.5%
Model probability
48.7%
Market no-vig
51.9%
Calibrated probability
50.3%
Explanation weight
9.8%
press
Market-blended
1–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
6.4%
Model probability
23.7%
Market no-vig
19.6%
Calibrated probability
21.7%
Explanation weight
9.1%
What-if · shift home expected goals
Drag the slider to explore a counterfactual ensemble.