Netherlands vs Morocco

World Cup 2026 · Round of 32 · Jun 29, 19:00 CDMX FT 1–1

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Netherlands

Model probability 53.6%

Market no-vig 40.3%

Calibrated probability 46.9%

Draw

Model probability 26.6%

Market no-vig 31.2%

Calibrated probability 28.9%

Morocco

Model probability 19.8%

Market no-vig 28.6%

Calibrated probability 24.2%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

1-1 13.8%

1-0 9.8%

0-0 9.3%

2-0 9.1%

2-1 8.4%

0-1 7.0%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 9.3% Over 0.5 90.7%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 26.2% Over 1.5 73.8%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 53.0% Over 2.5 47.0%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 74.2% Over 3.5 25.8%

BTTS yes 51.1%

BTTS no 48.9%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 36.3%

Away clean sheet 21.8%

Home win to nil 27.0%

Away win to nil 12.5%

Home over 0.5 78.2%

Away over 0.5 63.7%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 46.9%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 53.1%

Home 0.0

Home cover 46.9%

Push 28.9%

Away cover 24.2%

Home 0.5

Home cover 75.8%