Paraguay vs Australia

World Cup 2026 · Group D · Jun 25, 20:00 CDMX FT 0–0

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Paraguay

Model probability 45.7%

Market no-vig 37.1%

Calibrated probability 41.4%

Draw

Model probability 28.1%

Market no-vig 39.9%

Calibrated probability 34.0%

Australia

Model probability 26.2%

Market no-vig 23.0%

Calibrated probability 24.6%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

1-1 16.2%

0-0 10.5%

1-0 9.1%

2-1 8.4%

2-0 7.7%

0-1 6.5%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 10.5% Over 0.5 89.5%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 26.0% Over 1.5 74.0%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 54.0% Over 2.5 46.0%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 74.0% Over 3.5 26.0%

BTTS yes 54.3%

BTTS no 45.7%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 33.1%

Away clean sheet 23.1%

Home win to nil 22.6%

Away win to nil 12.6%

Home over 0.5 76.9%

Away over 0.5 66.9%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 41.4%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 58.6%

Home 0.0

Home cover 41.4%

Push 34.0%

Away cover 24.6%

Home 0.5

Home cover 75.4%