Iran vs New Zealand

World Cup 2026 · Group G · Jun 15, 19:00 CDMX FT 2–2

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Iran

Model probability 69.2%

Market no-vig 52.7%

Calibrated probability 60.9%

Draw

Model probability 21.4%

Market no-vig 27.6%

Calibrated probability 24.5%

New Zealand

Model probability 9.5%

Market no-vig 19.7%

Calibrated probability 14.6%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 13.0%

1-0 12.2%

1-1 11.4%

0-0 9.5%

3-0 8.6%

2-1 7.9%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 9.5% Over 0.5 90.5%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 27.4% Over 1.5 72.6%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 53.8% Over 2.5 46.2%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 75.0% Over 3.5 25.0%

BTTS yes 41.7%

BTTS no 58.3%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 50.1%

Away clean sheet 17.8%

Home win to nil 40.5%

Away win to nil 8.2%

Home over 0.5 82.2%

Away over 0.5 49.9%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 60.9%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 39.1%

Home 0.0

Home cover 60.9%

Push 24.5%

Away cover 14.6%

Home 0.5

Home cover 85.4%