New Zealand vs Belgium

World Cup 2026 · Group G · Jun 26, 21:00 CDMX FT 1–5

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

New Zealand

Model probability 3.8%

Market no-vig 7.0%

Calibrated probability 5.4%

Draw

Model probability 15.7%

Market no-vig 11.9%

Calibrated probability 13.8%

Belgium

Model probability 80.5%

Market no-vig 81.2%

Calibrated probability 80.8%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

0-2 18.9%

0-1 16.2%

0-3 14.2%

0-4 8.0%

0-0 7.0%

1-2 6.6%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 7.0% Over 0.5 93.0%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 26.1% Over 1.5 73.9%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 51.2% Over 2.5 48.8%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.5% Over 3.5 26.5%

BTTS yes 26.7%

BTTS no 73.3%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 10.6%

Away clean sheet 69.8%

Home win to nil 3.6%

Away win to nil 62.7%

Home over 0.5 30.2%

Away over 0.5 89.4%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 5.4%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 94.6%

Home 0.0

Home cover 5.4%

Push 13.8%

Away cover 80.8%

Home 0.5

Home cover 19.2%