Ecuador vs Curacao

World Cup 2026 · Group E · Jun 20, 18:00 CDMX FT 0–0

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Ecuador

Model probability 82.8%

Market no-vig 82.6%

Calibrated probability 82.7%

Draw

Model probability 14.2%

Market no-vig 11.6%

Calibrated probability 12.9%

Curacao

Model probability 3.0%

Market no-vig 5.8%

Calibrated probability 4.4%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 19.5%

1-0 16.3%

3-0 15.2%

4-0 8.8%

0-0 7.0%

2-1 5.9%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 7.0% Over 0.5 93.0%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.7% Over 1.5 74.3%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 50.8% Over 2.5 49.2%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.0% Over 3.5 27.0%

BTTS yes 23.7%

BTTS no 76.3%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 73.3%

Away clean sheet 10.0%

Home win to nil 66.3%

Away win to nil 3.0%

Home over 0.5 90.0%

Away over 0.5 26.7%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 82.7%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 17.3%

Home 0.0

Home cover 82.7%

Push 12.9%

Away cover 4.4%

Home 0.5

Home cover 95.6%