Odds API match markets
Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.
No Odds API match was found for these teams.
Brazil vs Norway
World Cup 2026 · Round of 16 · Jul 5, 14:00 CDMX FT 1–2
1X2 probability
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.
Brazil
Model probability
68.4%
Market no-vig
53.9%
Calibrated probability
61.2%
Draw
Model probability
21.7%
Market no-vig
25.8%
Calibrated probability
23.7%
Norway
Model probability
9.9%
Market no-vig
20.3%
Calibrated probability
15.1%
Market signals
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.
Polymarket match markets
Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.
No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.
World Cup winner
This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.
No Polymarket signal is available right now.
Most likely scorelines
2-0
12.9%
1-0
12.2%
1-1
11.1%
0-0
9.1%
3-0
8.5%
2-1
8.1%
Goal markets
Total 0.5
Under 0.5 9.1%
Over 0.5 90.9%
Total 1.5
Under 1.5 26.9%
Over 1.5 73.1%
Total 2.5
Under 2.5 53.1%
Over 2.5 46.9%
Total 3.5
Under 3.5 74.6%
Over 3.5 25.4%
BTTS yes
42.3%
BTTS no
57.7%
Team markets
Home clean sheet
49.3%
Away clean sheet
17.5%
Home win to nil
40.2%
Away win to nil
8.4%
Home over 0.5
82.5%
Away over 0.5
50.7%
Handicap snapshot
Home -0.5
Home cover
61.2%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
38.8%
Home 0.0
Home cover
61.2%
Push
23.7%
Away cover
15.1%
Home 0.5
Home cover
84.9%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
15.1%
press
Market-blended
3–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
9.5%
Model probability
68.4%
Market no-vig
53.9%
Calibrated probability
61.2%
Explanation weight
38.3%
possession
Market-blended
4–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
3.0%
Model probability
68.4%
Market no-vig
53.9%
Calibrated probability
61.2%
Explanation weight
26.9%
high-line
Market-blended
3–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
6.0%
Model probability
68.4%
Market no-vig
53.9%
Calibrated probability
61.2%
Explanation weight
24.9%
counter
Market-blended
3–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
9.5%
Model probability
68.4%
Market no-vig
53.9%
Calibrated probability
61.2%
Explanation weight
9.2%
park-bus
Market-blended
3–2
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
1.9%
Model probability
68.4%
Market no-vig
53.9%
Calibrated probability
61.2%
Explanation weight
0.7%
What-if · shift home expected goals
Drag the slider to explore a counterfactual ensemble.