United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

World Cup 2026 · Round of 32 · Jul 1, 18:00 CDMX FT 2–0

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

United States

Model probability 44.7%

Market no-vig 70.7%

Calibrated probability 57.7%

Draw

Model probability 28.3%

Market no-vig 18.8%

Calibrated probability 23.5%

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Model probability 27.0%

Market no-vig 10.6%

Calibrated probability 18.8%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

1-0 12.7%

2-1 11.8%

1-1 11.2%

2-0 10.6%

0-0 7.2%

3-1 5.9%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 7.2% Over 0.5 92.8%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 24.8% Over 1.5 75.2%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 49.8% Over 2.5 50.2%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 72.8% Over 3.5 27.2%

BTTS yes 51.8%

BTTS no 48.2%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 38.6%

Away clean sheet 16.9%

Home win to nil 31.4%

Away win to nil 9.7%

Home over 0.5 83.1%

Away over 0.5 61.4%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 57.7%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 42.3%

Home 0.0

Home cover 57.7%

Push 23.5%

Away cover 18.8%

Home 0.5

Home cover 81.2%