Belgium vs Egypt

World Cup 2026 · Group G · Jun 15, 13:00 CDMX FT 1–1

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Belgium

Model probability 69.2%

Market no-vig 63.0%

Calibrated probability 66.1%

Draw

Model probability 21.4%

Market no-vig 22.5%

Calibrated probability 21.9%

Egypt

Model probability 9.5%

Market no-vig 14.6%

Calibrated probability 12.0%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 14.1%

1-0 13.3%

1-1 10.2%

3-0 9.3%

2-1 8.6%

0-0 8.5%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.5% Over 0.5 91.5%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 26.4% Over 1.5 73.6%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 52.4% Over 2.5 47.6%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 74.1% Over 3.5 25.9%

BTTS yes 40.7%

BTTS no 59.3%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 52.5%

Away clean sheet 15.3%

Home win to nil 44.0%

Away win to nil 6.8%

Home over 0.5 84.7%

Away over 0.5 47.5%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 66.1%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 33.9%

Home 0.0

Home cover 66.1%

Push 21.9%

Away cover 12.0%

Home 0.5

Home cover 88.0%