Odds API match markets
Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.
No Odds API match was found for these teams.
Mexico vs South Africa
World Cup 2026 · Group A · Jun 11, 13:00 CDMX FT 2–0
1X2 probability
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.
Mexico
Model probability
63.5%
Market no-vig
67.2%
Calibrated probability
65.4%
Draw
Model probability
23.6%
Market no-vig
21.6%
Calibrated probability
22.6%
South Africa
Model probability
12.9%
Market no-vig
11.1%
Calibrated probability
12.0%
Market signals
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.
Polymarket match markets
Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.
No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.
World Cup winner
This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.
No Polymarket signal is available right now.
Most likely scorelines
2-0
13.4%
1-0
13.3%
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.8%
3-0
8.3%
0-0
8.1%
Goal markets
Total 0.5
Under 0.5 8.1%
Over 0.5 91.9%
Total 1.5
Under 1.5 25.4%
Over 1.5 74.6%
Total 2.5
Under 2.5 51.3%
Over 2.5 48.7%
Total 3.5
Under 3.5 73.3%
Over 3.5 26.7%
BTTS yes
44.5%
BTTS no
55.5%
Team markets
Home clean sheet
49.0%
Away clean sheet
14.6%
Home win to nil
40.9%
Away win to nil
6.5%
Home over 0.5
85.4%
Away over 0.5
51.0%
Handicap snapshot
Home -0.5
Home cover
65.4%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
34.6%
Home 0.0
Home cover
65.4%
Push
22.6%
Away cover
12.0%
Home 0.5
Home cover
88.0%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
12.0%
press
Market-blended
2–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
13.0%
Model probability
63.5%
Market no-vig
67.2%
Calibrated probability
65.4%
Explanation weight
41.1%
counter
Market-blended
1–4
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
0.2%
Model probability
12.9%
Market no-vig
11.1%
Calibrated probability
12.0%
Explanation weight
24.1%
possession
Market-blended
3–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
5.9%
Model probability
63.5%
Market no-vig
67.2%
Calibrated probability
65.4%
Explanation weight
22.1%
high-line
Market-blended
0–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
8.4%
Model probability
23.6%
Market no-vig
21.6%
Calibrated probability
22.6%
Explanation weight
12.3%
park-bus
Market-blended
1–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
11.2%
Model probability
23.6%
Market no-vig
21.6%
Calibrated probability
22.6%
Explanation weight
0.4%
What-if · shift home expected goals
Drag the slider to explore a counterfactual ensemble.