Iraq vs Norway

World Cup 2026 · Group I · Jun 16, 16:00 CDMX FT 1–4

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Iraq

Model probability 8.7%

Market no-vig 7.3%

Calibrated probability 8.0%

Draw

Model probability 20.8%

Market no-vig 14.1%

Calibrated probability 17.5%

Norway

Model probability 70.5%

Market no-vig 78.6%

Calibrated probability 74.6%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

0-2 16.0%

0-1 14.9%

0-3 10.8%

1-2 9.3%

1-1 8.0%

0-0 7.0%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 7.0% Over 0.5 93.0%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.1% Over 1.5 74.9%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 50.3% Over 2.5 49.7%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 72.9% Over 3.5 27.1%

BTTS yes 38.0%

BTTS no 62.0%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 11.5%

Away clean sheet 57.4%

Home win to nil 4.6%

Away win to nil 50.4%

Home over 0.5 42.6%

Away over 0.5 88.5%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 8.0%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 92.0%

Home 0.0

Home cover 8.0%

Push 17.5%

Away cover 74.6%

Home 0.5

Home cover 25.4%