Senegal vs Iraq

World Cup 2026 · Group I · Jun 26, 13:00 CDMX FT 5–0

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Senegal

Model probability 75.9%

Market no-vig 79.0%

Calibrated probability 77.4%

Draw

Model probability 18.2%

Market no-vig 13.6%

Calibrated probability 15.9%

Iraq

Model probability 5.9%

Market no-vig 7.4%

Calibrated probability 6.7%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

2-0 17.4%

1-0 15.5%

3-0 12.4%

2-1 8.0%

0-0 7.1%

1-1 7.0%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 7.1% Over 0.5 92.9%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.6% Over 1.5 74.4%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 50.9% Over 2.5 49.1%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.3% Over 3.5 26.7%

BTTS yes 32.7%

BTTS no 67.3%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 63.2%

Away clean sheet 11.2%

Home win to nil 56.1%

Away win to nil 4.1%

Home over 0.5 88.8%

Away over 0.5 36.8%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 77.4%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 22.6%

Home 0.0

Home cover 77.4%

Push 15.9%

Away cover 6.7%

Home 0.5

Home cover 93.3%