Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay

World Cup 2026 · Group H · Jun 15, 16:00 CDMX FT 1–1

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Saudi Arabia

Model probability 7.9%

Market no-vig 11.8%

Calibrated probability 9.9%

Draw

Model probability 20.2%

Market no-vig 22.4%

Calibrated probability 21.3%

Uruguay

Model probability 71.9%

Market no-vig 65.8%

Calibrated probability 68.8%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

0-2 14.9%

0-1 13.8%

0-3 10.2%

1-1 9.7%

0-0 8.7%

1-2 8.2%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.7% Over 0.5 91.3%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 26.5% Over 1.5 73.5%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 52.6% Over 2.5 47.4%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 74.2% Over 3.5 25.8%

BTTS yes 38.2%

BTTS no 61.8%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 14.5%

Away clean sheet 56.0%

Home win to nil 5.7%

Away win to nil 47.3%

Home over 0.5 44.0%

Away over 0.5 85.5%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 9.9%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 90.1%

Home 0.0

Home cover 9.9%

Push 21.3%

Away cover 68.8%

Home 0.5

Home cover 31.2%