Argentina vs Switzerland

World Cup 2026 · Quarter-final · Jul 11, 19:00 CDMX FT 3–1

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Argentina

Model probability 77.2%

Market no-vig 56.1%

Calibrated probability 66.6%

Draw

Model probability 17.5%

Market no-vig 28.1%

Calibrated probability 22.8%

Switzerland

Model probability 5.3%

Market no-vig 15.8%

Calibrated probability 10.6%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

#1 Argentina 0.1%

View on Polymarket → updated 19:20 CDMX

Most likely scorelines

2-0 15.1%

1-0 13.3%

3-0 10.9%

0-0 10.6%

1-1 9.9%

2-1 6.5%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 10.6% Over 0.5 89.4%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 28.9% Over 1.5 71.1%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 55.2% Over 2.5 44.8%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 75.8% Over 3.5 24.2%

BTTS yes 33.7%

BTTS no 66.3%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 59.7%

Away clean sheet 17.1%

Home win to nil 49.2%

Away win to nil 6.6%

Home over 0.5 82.9%

Away over 0.5 40.3%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 66.6%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 33.4%

Home 0.0

Home cover 66.6%

Push 22.8%

Away cover 10.6%

Home 0.5

Home cover 89.4%