Argentina vs Austria

World Cup 2026 · Group J · Jun 22, 11:00 CDMX FT 2–0

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Argentina

Model probability 79.4%

Market no-vig 65.8%

Calibrated probability 72.6%

Draw

Model probability 16.3%

Market no-vig 21.7%

Calibrated probability 19.0%

Austria

Model probability 4.3%

Market no-vig 12.5%

Calibrated probability 8.4%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

#1 Argentina 0.1%

View on Polymarket → updated 19:20 CDMX

Most likely scorelines

2-0 16.7%

1-0 14.4%

3-0 12.4%

0-0 9.3%

1-1 8.0%

4-0 6.9%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 9.3% Over 0.5 90.7%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 28.0% Over 1.5 72.0%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 53.7% Over 2.5 46.3%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 74.9% Over 3.5 25.1%

BTTS yes 30.1%

BTTS no 69.9%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 64.5%

Away clean sheet 14.7%

Home win to nil 55.2%

Away win to nil 5.4%

Home over 0.5 85.3%

Away over 0.5 35.5%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 72.6%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 27.4%

Home 0.0

Home cover 72.6%

Push 19.0%

Away cover 8.4%

Home 0.5

Home cover 91.6%