New Zealand vs Egypt

World Cup 2026 · Group G · Jun 21, 19:00 CDMX FT 1–3

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

New Zealand

Model probability 16.2%

Market no-vig 16.8%

Calibrated probability 16.5%

Draw

Model probability 25.2%

Market no-vig 24.2%

Calibrated probability 24.7%

Egypt

Model probability 58.6%

Market no-vig 59.0%

Calibrated probability 58.8%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

0-1 12.1%

1-1 11.8%

0-2 11.7%

1-2 9.7%

0-0 8.3%

0-3 6.9%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.3% Over 0.5 91.7%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.6% Over 1.5 74.4%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 51.6% Over 2.5 48.4%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.6% Over 3.5 26.4%

BTTS yes 47.8%

BTTS no 52.2%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 17.0%

Away clean sheet 43.5%

Home win to nil 8.7%

Away win to nil 35.2%

Home over 0.5 56.5%

Away over 0.5 83.0%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 16.5%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 83.5%

Home 0.0

Home cover 16.5%

Push 24.7%

Away cover 58.8%

Home 0.5

Home cover 41.2%