Odds API match markets
Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.
No Odds API match was found for these teams.
United States vs Paraguay
World Cup 2026 · Group D · Jun 12, 19:00 CDMX FT 4–1
1X2 probability
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.
United States
Model probability
44.7%
Market no-vig
46.4%
Calibrated probability
45.6%
Draw
Model probability
28.3%
Market no-vig
29.7%
Calibrated probability
29.0%
Paraguay
Model probability
27.0%
Market no-vig
23.8%
Calibrated probability
25.4%
Market signals
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.
Polymarket match markets
Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.
No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.
World Cup winner
This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.
No Polymarket signal is available right now.
Most likely scorelines
1-1
13.9%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
8.9%
2-0
8.4%
0-1
6.6%
Goal markets
Total 0.5
Under 0.5 8.9%
Over 0.5 91.1%
Total 1.5
Under 1.5 25.5%
Over 1.5 74.5%
Total 2.5
Under 2.5 52.1%
Over 2.5 47.9%
Total 3.5
Under 3.5 73.6%
Over 3.5 26.4%
BTTS yes
53.3%
BTTS no
46.7%
Team markets
Home clean sheet
33.6%
Away clean sheet
21.9%
Home win to nil
24.8%
Away win to nil
13.1%
Home over 0.5
78.1%
Away over 0.5
66.4%
Handicap snapshot
Home -0.5
Home cover
45.6%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
54.4%
Home 0.0
Home cover
45.6%
Push
29.0%
Away cover
25.4%
Home 0.5
Home cover
74.6%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
25.4%
press
Market-blended
2–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
8.2%
Model probability
44.7%
Market no-vig
46.4%
Calibrated probability
45.6%
Explanation weight
40.9%
counter
Market-blended
1–2
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
6.8%
Model probability
27.0%
Market no-vig
23.8%
Calibrated probability
25.4%
Explanation weight
23.9%
possession
Market-blended
2–2
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
5.1%
Model probability
28.3%
Market no-vig
29.7%
Calibrated probability
29.0%
Explanation weight
21.9%
high-line
Market-blended
1–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
13.5%
Model probability
28.3%
Market no-vig
29.7%
Calibrated probability
29.0%
Explanation weight
13.1%
counter
Market-blended
0–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
7.0%
Model probability
27.0%
Market no-vig
23.8%
Calibrated probability
25.4%
Explanation weight
0.3%
What-if · shift home expected goals
Drag the slider to explore a counterfactual ensemble.