Odds API match markets
Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.
No Odds API match was found for these teams.
Germany vs Curacao
World Cup 2026 · Group E · Jun 14, 11:00 CDMX FT 7–1
1X2 probability
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.
Germany
Model probability
83.1%
Market no-vig
92.9%
Calibrated probability
88.0%
Draw
Model probability
14.0%
Market no-vig
4.8%
Calibrated probability
9.4%
Curacao
Model probability
2.9%
Market no-vig
2.3%
Calibrated probability
2.6%
Market signals
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.
Polymarket match markets
Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.
No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.
World Cup winner
This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.
No Polymarket signal is available right now.
Most likely scorelines
2-0
20.7%
1-0
17.1%
3-0
16.2%
4-0
9.5%
2-1
6.2%
0-0
5.1%
Goal markets
Total 0.5
Under 0.5 5.1%
Over 0.5 94.9%
Total 1.5
Under 1.5 23.6%
Over 1.5 76.4%
Total 2.5
Under 2.5 48.2%
Over 2.5 51.8%
Total 3.5
Under 3.5 71.3%
Over 3.5 28.7%
BTTS yes
22.7%
BTTS no
77.3%
Team markets
Home clean sheet
75.5%
Away clean sheet
6.9%
Home win to nil
70.4%
Away win to nil
1.8%
Home over 0.5
93.1%
Away over 0.5
24.5%
Handicap snapshot
Home -0.5
Home cover
88.0%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
12.0%
Home 0.0
Home cover
88.0%
Push
9.4%
Away cover
2.6%
Home 0.5
Home cover
97.4%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
2.6%
press
Market-blended
2–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
19.5%
Model probability
83.1%
Market no-vig
92.9%
Calibrated probability
88.0%
Explanation weight
35.7%
possession
Market-blended
3–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
15.3%
Model probability
83.1%
Market no-vig
92.9%
Calibrated probability
88.0%
Explanation weight
28.0%
high-line
Market-blended
4–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
2.7%
Model probability
83.1%
Market no-vig
92.9%
Calibrated probability
88.0%
Explanation weight
27.4%
counter
Market-blended
0–2
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
0.3%
Model probability
2.9%
Market no-vig
2.3%
Calibrated probability
2.6%
Explanation weight
8.0%
press
Market-blended
0–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
7.6%
Model probability
14.0%
Market no-vig
4.8%
Calibrated probability
9.4%
Explanation weight
0.8%
What-if · shift home expected goals
Drag the slider to explore a counterfactual ensemble.