Odds API match markets
Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.
No Odds API match was found for these teams.
Australia vs Turkiye
World Cup 2026 · Group D · Jun 12, 22:00 CDMX FT 2–0
1X2 probability
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.
Australia
Model probability
23.7%
Market no-vig
18.7%
Calibrated probability
21.2%
Draw
Model probability
27.7%
Market no-vig
25.4%
Calibrated probability
26.5%
Turkiye
Model probability
48.7%
Market no-vig
55.9%
Calibrated probability
52.3%
Market signals
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.
Polymarket match markets
Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.
No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.
World Cup winner
This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.
No Polymarket signal is available right now.
Most likely scorelines
1-1
12.7%
0-1
11.2%
1-2
10.1%
0-2
9.8%
0-0
8.3%
1-0
5.8%
Goal markets
Total 0.5
Under 0.5 8.3%
Over 0.5 91.7%
Total 1.5
Under 1.5 25.3%
Over 1.5 74.7%
Total 2.5
Under 2.5 51.3%
Over 2.5 48.7%
Total 3.5
Under 3.5 73.3%
Over 3.5 26.7%
BTTS yes
51.7%
BTTS no
48.3%
Team markets
Home clean sheet
19.2%
Away clean sheet
37.4%
Home win to nil
10.9%
Away win to nil
29.1%
Home over 0.5
62.6%
Away over 0.5
80.8%
Handicap snapshot
Home -0.5
Home cover
21.2%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
78.8%
Home 0.0
Home cover
21.2%
Push
26.5%
Away cover
52.3%
Home 0.5
Home cover
47.7%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
52.3%
press
Market-blended
4–3
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
0.2%
Model probability
23.7%
Market no-vig
18.7%
Calibrated probability
21.2%
Explanation weight
41.0%
possession
Market-blended
2–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
6.2%
Model probability
23.7%
Market no-vig
18.7%
Calibrated probability
21.2%
Explanation weight
24.4%
high-line
Market-blended
0–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
10.5%
Model probability
48.7%
Market no-vig
55.9%
Calibrated probability
52.3%
Explanation weight
20.9%
counter
Market-blended
1–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
13.2%
Model probability
27.7%
Market no-vig
25.4%
Calibrated probability
26.5%
Explanation weight
13.4%
park-bus
Market-blended
0–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
10.5%
Model probability
48.7%
Market no-vig
55.9%
Calibrated probability
52.3%
Explanation weight
0.2%
What-if · shift home expected goals
Drag the slider to explore a counterfactual ensemble.