Norway vs Senegal

World Cup 2026 · Group I · Jun 22, 18:00 CDMX FT 3–2

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Norway

Model probability 37.0%

Market no-vig 39.4%

Calibrated probability 38.2%

Draw

Model probability 28.9%

Market no-vig 28.1%

Calibrated probability 28.5%

Senegal

Model probability 34.2%

Market no-vig 32.5%

Calibrated probability 33.3%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

1-1 13.6%

1-0 8.9%

2-1 8.6%

0-0 8.6%

0-1 8.0%

1-2 7.8%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.6% Over 0.5 91.4%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.5% Over 1.5 74.5%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 51.7% Over 2.5 48.3%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.6% Over 3.5 26.4%

BTTS yes 54.1%

BTTS no 45.9%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 28.6%

Away clean sheet 25.9%

Home win to nil 20.0%

Away win to nil 17.3%

Home over 0.5 74.1%

Away over 0.5 71.4%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 38.2%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 61.8%

Home 0.0

Home cover 38.2%

Push 28.5%

Away cover 33.3%

Home 0.5

Home cover 66.7%