England vs Croatia

World Cup 2026 · Group L · Jun 17, 14:00 CDMX FT 4–2

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

England

Model probability 54.6%

Market no-vig 57.0%

Calibrated probability 55.8%

Draw

Model probability 26.4%

Market no-vig 25.1%

Calibrated probability 25.7%

Croatia

Model probability 19.0%

Market no-vig 17.9%

Calibrated probability 18.5%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

1-1 12.3%

1-0 11.7%

2-0 10.8%

2-1 9.9%

0-0 8.4%

3-0 6.1%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 8.4% Over 0.5 91.6%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.5% Over 1.5 74.5%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 51.6% Over 2.5 48.4%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.5% Over 3.5 26.5%

BTTS yes 49.7%

BTTS no 50.3%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 40.7%

Away clean sheet 18.0%

Home win to nil 32.4%

Away win to nil 9.6%

Home over 0.5 82.0%

Away over 0.5 59.3%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 55.8%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 44.2%

Home 0.0

Home cover 55.8%

Push 25.7%

Away cover 18.5%

Home 0.5

Home cover 81.5%