Odds API match markets
Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.
No Odds API match was found for these teams.
Paraguay vs France
World Cup 2026 · Round of 16 · Jul 4, 15:00 CDMX FT 0–1
1X2 probability
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.
Paraguay
Model probability
3.8%
Market no-vig
5.7%
Calibrated probability
4.8%
Draw
Model probability
15.7%
Market no-vig
14.2%
Calibrated probability
15.0%
France
Model probability
80.5%
Market no-vig
80.0%
Calibrated probability
80.2%
Market signals
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.
Polymarket match markets
Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.
No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.
World Cup winner
This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.
No Polymarket signal is available right now.
Most likely scorelines
0-2
18.8%
0-1
16.1%
0-3
14.1%
0-4
7.9%
0-0
7.6%
1-2
6.6%
Goal markets
Total 0.5
Under 0.5 7.6%
Over 0.5 92.4%
Total 1.5
Under 1.5 26.2%
Over 1.5 73.8%
Total 2.5
Under 2.5 51.7%
Over 2.5 48.3%
Total 3.5
Under 3.5 73.7%
Over 3.5 26.3%
BTTS yes
26.9%
BTTS no
73.1%
Team markets
Home clean sheet
10.8%
Away clean sheet
69.9%
Home win to nil
3.2%
Away win to nil
62.3%
Home over 0.5
30.1%
Away over 0.5
89.2%
Handicap snapshot
Home -0.5
Home cover
4.8%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
95.2%
Home 0.0
Home cover
4.8%
Push
15.0%
Away cover
80.2%
Home 0.5
Home cover
19.8%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
80.2%
counter
Market-blended
0–3
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
14.1%
Model probability
80.5%
Market no-vig
80.0%
Calibrated probability
80.2%
Explanation weight
47.0%
counter
Market-blended
0–4
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
7.9%
Model probability
80.5%
Market no-vig
80.0%
Calibrated probability
80.2%
Explanation weight
26.7%
high-line
Market-blended
2–6
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
0.1%
Model probability
80.5%
Market no-vig
80.0%
Calibrated probability
80.2%
Explanation weight
14.5%
possession
Market-blended
0–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
16.1%
Model probability
80.5%
Market no-vig
80.0%
Calibrated probability
80.2%
Explanation weight
6.4%
press
Market-blended
1–2
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
6.6%
Model probability
80.5%
Market no-vig
80.0%
Calibrated probability
80.2%
Explanation weight
5.4%
What-if · shift home expected goals
Drag the slider to explore a counterfactual ensemble.