Odds API match markets
Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.
No Odds API match was found for these teams.
Netherlands vs Japan
World Cup 2026 · Group F · Jun 14, 14:00 CDMX FT 2–2
1X2 probability
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.
Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.
Netherlands
Model probability
61.5%
Market no-vig
47.5%
Calibrated probability
54.5%
Draw
Model probability
24.3%
Market no-vig
27.5%
Calibrated probability
25.9%
Japan
Model probability
14.2%
Market no-vig
25.0%
Calibrated probability
19.6%
Market signals
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.
External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.
Polymarket match markets
Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.
No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.
World Cup winner
This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.
No Polymarket signal is available right now.
Most likely scorelines
1-1
12.3%
1-0
11.1%
2-0
11.0%
0-0
9.0%
2-1
8.5%
3-0
6.7%
Goal markets
Total 0.5
Under 0.5 9.0%
Over 0.5 91.0%
Total 1.5
Under 1.5 26.6%
Over 1.5 73.4%
Total 2.5
Under 2.5 52.9%
Over 2.5 47.1%
Total 3.5
Under 3.5 74.5%
Over 3.5 25.5%
BTTS yes
47.0%
BTTS no
53.0%
Team markets
Home clean sheet
42.5%
Away clean sheet
19.5%
Home win to nil
33.5%
Away win to nil
10.5%
Home over 0.5
80.5%
Away over 0.5
57.5%
Handicap snapshot
Home -0.5
Home cover
54.5%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
45.5%
Home 0.0
Home cover
54.5%
Push
25.9%
Away cover
19.6%
Home 0.5
Home cover
80.4%
Push
0.0%
Away cover
19.6%
press
Market-blended
5–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
1.0%
Model probability
61.5%
Market no-vig
47.5%
Calibrated probability
54.5%
Explanation weight
38.9%
possession
Market-blended
4–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
3.5%
Model probability
61.5%
Market no-vig
47.5%
Calibrated probability
54.5%
Explanation weight
26.0%
high-line
Market-blended
5–0
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
1.3%
Model probability
61.5%
Market no-vig
47.5%
Calibrated probability
54.5%
Explanation weight
24.4%
counter
Market-blended
3–2
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
2.2%
Model probability
61.5%
Market no-vig
47.5%
Calibrated probability
54.5%
Explanation weight
10.2%
park-bus
Market-blended
1–1
projected score-line
Model scoreline probability
11.5%
Model probability
24.3%
Market no-vig
27.5%
Calibrated probability
25.9%
Explanation weight
0.5%
What-if · shift home expected goals
Drag the slider to explore a counterfactual ensemble.