England vs Argentina

World Cup 2026 · Semi-final · Jul 15, 13:00 CDMX FT 1–2

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

England

Model probability 26.6%

Market no-vig 35.6%

Calibrated probability 31.1%

Draw

Model probability 28.2%

Market no-vig 33.0%

Calibrated probability 30.6%

Argentina

Model probability 45.2%

Market no-vig 31.4%

Calibrated probability 38.3%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

#1 Argentina 0.1%

View on Polymarket → updated 19:20 CDMX

Most likely scorelines

1-1 14.6%

0-0 9.4%

0-1 8.4%

1-0 8.1%

2-1 7.9%

1-2 7.8%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 9.4% Over 0.5 90.6%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.9% Over 1.5 74.1%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 52.9% Over 2.5 47.1%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 74.0% Over 3.5 26.0%

BTTS yes 53.8%

BTTS no 46.2%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 25.4%

Away clean sheet 30.3%

Home win to nil 16.0%

Away win to nil 20.9%

Home over 0.5 69.7%

Away over 0.5 74.6%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 31.1%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 68.9%

Home 0.0

Home cover 31.1%

Push 30.6%

Away cover 38.3%

Home 0.5

Home cover 61.7%