Tunisia vs Netherlands

World Cup 2026 · Group F · Jun 25, 17:00 CDMX FT 1–3

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Tunisia

Model probability 3.8%

Market no-vig 4.9%

Calibrated probability 4.4%

Draw

Model probability 15.7%

Market no-vig 10.6%

Calibrated probability 13.1%

Netherlands

Model probability 80.5%

Market no-vig 84.5%

Calibrated probability 82.5%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

0-2 19.3%

0-1 16.5%

0-3 14.5%

0-4 8.1%

1-2 6.7%

0-0 6.7%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 6.7% Over 0.5 93.3%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.5% Over 1.5 74.5%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 50.7% Over 2.5 49.3%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.1% Over 3.5 26.9%

BTTS yes 26.4%

BTTS no 73.6%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 9.6%

Away clean sheet 70.7%

Home win to nil 2.9%

Away win to nil 64.0%

Home over 0.5 29.3%

Away over 0.5 90.4%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 4.4%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 95.6%

Home 0.0

Home cover 4.4%

Push 13.1%

Away cover 82.5%

Home 0.5

Home cover 17.5%