Mexico vs England

World Cup 2026 · Round of 16 · Jul 5, 18:00 CDMX FT 2–3

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Mexico

Model probability 8.2%

Market no-vig 31.1%

Calibrated probability 19.6%

Draw

Model probability 20.4%

Market no-vig 31.5%

Calibrated probability 25.9%

England

Model probability 71.4%

Market no-vig 37.4%

Calibrated probability 54.4%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

1-1 11.9%

0-2 11.8%

0-1 10.9%

0-0 10.5%

0-3 8.0%

1-0 7.9%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 10.5% Over 0.5 89.5%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 29.4% Over 1.5 70.6%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 55.8% Over 2.5 44.2%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 76.6% Over 3.5 23.4%

BTTS yes 40.9%

BTTS no 59.1%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 21.9%

Away clean sheet 47.8%

Home win to nil 11.3%

Away win to nil 37.2%

Home over 0.5 52.2%

Away over 0.5 78.1%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 19.6%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 80.4%

Home 0.0

Home cover 19.6%

Push 25.9%

Away cover 54.4%

Home 0.5

Home cover 45.6%