Ecuador vs Germany

World Cup 2026 · Group E · Jun 25, 14:00 CDMX FT 2–1

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Ecuador

Model probability 18.3%

Market no-vig 21.9%

Calibrated probability 20.1%

Draw

Model probability 26.1%

Market no-vig 22.3%

Calibrated probability 24.2%

Germany

Model probability 55.6%

Market no-vig 55.8%

Calibrated probability 55.7%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

0-1 11.6%

1-1 11.5%

0-2 10.9%

1-2 9.7%

0-0 7.9%

0-3 6.2%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 7.9% Over 0.5 92.1%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 25.5% Over 1.5 74.5%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 51.2% Over 2.5 48.8%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.6% Over 3.5 26.4%

BTTS yes 49.0%

BTTS no 51.0%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 18.4%

Away clean sheet 40.5%

Home win to nil 10.5%

Away win to nil 32.6%

Home over 0.5 59.5%

Away over 0.5 81.6%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 20.1%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 79.9%

Home 0.0

Home cover 20.1%

Push 24.2%

Away cover 55.7%

Home 0.5

Home cover 44.3%