Norway vs France

World Cup 2026 · Group I · Jun 26, 13:00 CDMX FT 1–4

All World Cup Fixtures

1X2 probability

Three views of the match: our model, the bookmaker line with the margin removed (no-vig), and the calibrated blend of both.

Blended with no-vig market inputs. Model probability remains visible.

Market-blended

Norway

Model probability 7.5%

Market no-vig 13.0%

Calibrated probability 10.2%

Draw

Model probability 19.7%

Market no-vig 16.7%

Calibrated probability 18.2%

France

Model probability 72.8%

Market no-vig 70.2%

Calibrated probability 71.5%

Market signals

Live bookmaker and Polymarket prices. The model is sampled independently; the calibrated 1X2 above blends it with the market line afterwards. These cards are context.

External prices shown separately from the model, no-vig, calibrated, and scenario fields.

Odds API match markets

Decimal odds converted to no-vig 1X2 when available.

No match

No Odds API match was found for these teams.

Polymarket match markets

Fixture-specific market search; it does not feed the model.

No match

No active Polymarket match or exact-score market was found for these teams.

World Cup winner

This match's teams in the title race — rank and chance among all contenders, per Polymarket.

Tournament

No Polymarket signal is available right now.

Most likely scorelines

0-2 15.6%

0-1 14.3%

0-3 10.8%

1-2 8.3%

1-1 8.3%

0-0 7.6%

Goal markets

Total 0.5 Under 0.5 7.6% Over 0.5 92.4%

Total 1.5 Under 1.5 26.2% Over 1.5 73.8%

Total 2.5 Under 2.5 51.6% Over 2.5 48.4%

Total 3.5 Under 3.5 73.8% Over 3.5 26.2%

BTTS yes 36.7%

BTTS no 63.3%

Team markets

Home clean sheet 13.6%

Away clean sheet 57.3%

Home win to nil 6.0%

Away win to nil 49.7%

Home over 0.5 42.7%

Away over 0.5 86.4%

Handicap snapshot

Home -0.5

Home cover 10.2%

Push 0.0%

Away cover 89.8%

Home 0.0

Home cover 10.2%

Push 18.2%

Away cover 71.5%

Home 0.5

Home cover 28.5%